National media puts Gov. Newsom on the couch

It isn't why the recall, but why is this one working?

California continues to be a source of fascination, mystery and bewilderment to the national media.

With the Sept. 14 recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom coming up, the big thinkers have turned their searchlight back on the state. Because, after all, isn’t California where the future happens first?

The coverage seems to have coalesced around a singular issue. It is best summed up by a Los Angeles Times headline:

“How Gavin Newsom went from a landslide victory to fighting for his political life.”

And this is a big deal. Attention must be paid. You’ve already heard the doomsday scenario for the left coast state.

If Newsom fails to get more than 50 percent of the vote (and his numbers among likely voters are concerning) we would flip over the ballot and choose among some 46 grandstanding nutcases.

Actually, there are a couple of real politicians in there, but the guy who is getting traction is right wing talk radio rabble-rouser Larry Elder. He just needs the most votes, so it is possible he could become governor with less than, say, 20 percent of the ballots.

And, and, and . . . If Elder, an anti-vax proponent and climate change denier, were governor and 88-year-old Sen. Dianne Feinstein were to leave officer early, maybe for health issues or early retirement, Elder could appoint a conservative senator.

And as we know, the Senate is precariously balanced between Republican and Democrats at 50-50. That would tip the balance.

So yeah, there might be a lot at stake here.

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But I think the pundits are asking the wrong question:

It isn’t why is Newsom facing a recall election?

It is why did this recall get traction and make it to the ballot?

Because California voters hold recalls the way some people change the oil in the car — sometimes four or five times a year.

Newsom has already faced six unsuccessful recalls and he hasn’t even gotten through his first term.

But don’t mistake that for a symbol of his unpopularity. Literally every California governor since 1960 has faced a recall effort. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is famously the only governor in Cali history to win office in a recall, endured seven recalls attempts, sometimes more than one in the same year.

So why did this one make to an election? And, OK, if you insist, why is this so close? It’s true, Newsom was elected with 62 percent of the vote. He had an eye-popping $75.7 billion budget surplus. He was poised to do some big, bold things.

What happened?

Well, a case can be made the Newsom was the guy standing at the governor’s podium when the banana cream pies started flying.

We have to admit, some of the crises were out of his control. Two of the biggest issues of his term have been COVID and wildfires, both devastating acts of nature. And the pandemic has somehow morphed into a culture war, where wearing a mask (or refusing to) is a political statement.

He didn’t cause the Coronavirus, but he will be judged by how he handled it. In typical Newsom fashion, he took big swings. He announced in March of 2020 that California schools would likely be closed for the rest of the school year.

At the time it caused gasps. Which is right on brand for Newsom.

I liked what political consultant Garry South told the Los Angeles Times:

“Newsom is clearly somebody who wants to make history,” he said. “This is not someone who is going to nibble around the edges.”

And the decision did not have an immediate impact. His poll numbers stayed high, in the 60s.

But the pandemic dragged on. Newsom waffled on reopening schools in the fall. Parents, frustrated with their kids struggling at home, said they felt Newsom was flip-flopping and ineffective. Schools had to open.

People were weary, disgruntled and fed up. Maybe some of it wasn’t Newsom’s fault, but he’s the guy in charge.

Newsom’s appearances at regular press conferences became a compilation of what people disliked about him. He was windy, self-satisfied, defensive and sounded like someone who had swallowed a thesaurus.

Meanwhile, wildfire season began — again. Schools became political battlegrounds. Crime spiked.

And then in November a judge ruled that recall petition collectors should have an extra four months to collect signatures, because the pandemic was making efforts difficult.

It was that same month he stepped into what I think is the real reason Newsom is having such problems.

The unmasked dinner at the exclusive French Laundry, at a time when he was telling people to stay at home and avoid groups, has been hashed and re-hashed. It was literally a skit on Saturday Night Live. We’ve been over this a million times.

But I’d say, if anything, we are underestimating the effect. Another consultant, Dan Schnur, told the L.A. Times, “The most damaging gaffes in politics don’t create new impressions, they reinforce the existing ones.”

It did. That dinner made the case that Newsom was an out-of-touch, rich snob who was above the rules. You know the knock, he’s a show horse not a workhorse.

Just so you don’t think I’ve completely lost it, consider this. Before the French Laundry, the recall was limping along at 55,500+ signatures with 1.5 million needed. A month after the dinner the recall had half a million.

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Newsom has done bad optics before. He’s still hearing about the Harper’s Bazaar fashion photo shoot with him and first wife Kimberly Guilfoyle sprawled on a rug. The caption: “The New Kennedys,” was way over the top.

So now the helpful observers are suggesting re-makes for Newsom. An L.A. Times column opined that he lacks “likability.” It was suggested he should “Look real. Connect. Muss the hair.”

I don’t know. He’s 53. To think he’s going to turn into former Gov. Jerry Brown at this point is a reach.

I think you’ve got to let Gavin be Gavin. He’s surely been told to cut down on highfaluting verbiage. It just doesn’t take.

And, remember, he’s still the guy who boldly approved same-sex marriage in 2004. It’s a mixed bag.

I would say this. When covering sports I found that the best athletes to deal with were the ones who had been on top, suffered a career dip and then returned to prominence. They had seen both sides, and they got it.

If Newsom survives this recall (and it says here he will, and more easily than many think) he’ll be that athlete.

He may not change his hairstyle but he’ll have something valuable.

Perspective.

Contact C.W. Nevius at cwnevius@gmail.com. Suggestions and compliments gladly accepted. Criticism not so much. Twitter: @cwnevius