Maybe we are doing basketball wrong.
You’d have to say we have a pretty clear idea of how hoops are supposed to be played. It’s every NBA TV promo — back-to-back slam dunks, crazy contested shots and lots of flexing and bellowing.
Which is fine. The apex of the sport, the NBA, is wildly popular — even in other countries. So we get it. That’s basketball.
But the game, slowly, inexorably is going in a different direction.
Because here’s the thing — slam dunks get boring. The All-Star Game dunk contest used to be must-see. Now the league has trouble rounding up contestants. It’s been done.
And that’s the thing about the popularity of the game. It’s opened it up to the rest of the world. So much so that players from Eastern Europe have not only become productive players, we are going to have to admit that they are stars.
(And no, this won’t be another Nikola Jokic’ valentine. Yet. It’s coming but not until later.)
Take Luka Doncic, a slow-footed Slovenian. He was Rookie of the Year in the 2018-19 season and is a perennial All-Star. Who’d have thought?
And no, this isn’t just an appreciation for white guys from Europe. Players like Doncic and Jokic highlighted the value of scoring, but also other skills. It has opened the door for under-appreciated American players.
As we heard over and over in the NBA Finals, the Miami Heat have seven players on the roster that weren’t even drafted. That includes Caleb Martin, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, all of whom played significant minutes during the season and in the playoffs.
How is it possible that every single team in the NBA missed those guys — twice — in the draft?
Well, you will not be surprised to hear I have a theory.
I think the metrics basketball has been using are baked in. It’s basically AAU basketball turned up to 11.
I’m no expert on the AAU programs, but I’ve talked to some who follow it. The AAU system is where promising young players join high-powered traveling teams. They play tons of pressure-packed games, with the usual pushy parents entertaining wildly unrealistic dreams.
And you can add in the sleaze factor, where agents lurk and poach prospects. Granted, it isn’t everybody, but it is a part of it.
And if you’re going to attract much attention in AAU ball, it is unlikely that it will be because you move your feet well on defense. You are expected to score.
And that’s what you get. Head-down, one-on-one scorers. And if you can throw down a massive dunk too, all the better. Again, not everybody, but it is definitely a thing.
And that’s what they are scouting for at the next level — players who have the numbers. Vertical leap, wingspan and scoring average.
And yet teams swing and miss. A lot.
Let’s remember, the Warriors have had multiple bites at the draft apple. In two years they drafted three lottery picks. And they have yet to show that any of the three can even crack the regular rotation, let alone become a starter.
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Such challenges are not uncommon.
This story re-drafts the 2018 NBA selections and it is a laundry list of players who were under-valued by the brightest minds in the NBA in rebounding one year.
Wouldn’t you think basketball would get the message? What you are really looking for in players is someone, for example, who plays defense — Marcus Smart, Defensive Player of the Year, from that 2018 draft. Or an affinity for doing the unpleasant stuff — Clint Capela 25th pick in 2018, a productive big man, led the NBA in rebounding.
Miami’s Jimmy Butler, the spiritual heartbeat of the Heat, was the 30th, and final, pick of the first round in 2011. You’d like to think teams would see the qualities that make Butler a leader.
Nope. And you have to think it is because it is hard to evaluate 20-year-old kid and predict if he’ll be a player who will share the ball, buy into the culture and not just try to score.
It’s probably safer, and easier, to go with the usual numbers, the usual standards, the guy who can jump out of the gym but needs a little refinement.
Which, finally, brings us to Jokic’.
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Surely you’ve heard the story. He was chosen with the 41st pick, the 11th choice of the second round. Famously, the selection was such a yawn that TV coverage cut to a Taco Bell commercial while it was being announced.
In a way you can see it. He was pudgy and ponderous. I assume he can dunk, but I don’t know if I’ve ever seen him do it.
If he was a kid in an AAU program, he’d probably have been laughed out of the gym.
Instead, he was playing with grown men in the tough Serbian league, where he was scoring, of course, but also leading the league in rebounding and racking up multiple MVP trophies.
That’s what he brought to Denver and to the league. Now that he’s won back-to-back NBA MVPs, and a championship, even skeptics are grudgingly admitting they were wrong.
Who’s laughing now?
Contact C.W. Nevius at cwnevius@gmail.com. Twitter: @cwnevius
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