The Gov. Newsom recall gets real

Why it matters. And more importantly, why it may not

Is the recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom going to become a thing?

I say no. And I’d even say there is a way — if you squint really hard — that a recall could work out for Newsom.

But first, let’s consider why this has become a narrative. The Newsom recall is definitely trending with the national deep thinkers. They are posing voter unrest here as a possible microcosm of the issues in the 2022 election.

And if you haven’t been keeping up with the progress of the recall — great news! You are about to hear a lot more about it. There are several reasons.

First, consider presumptive opposition frontrunner, Republican John Cox, who is launching a slate of state-wide TV recall ads this week. You will not be surprised to hear that Cox is leading with Newsom’s dirty (French) Laundry. Accounts of that unmasked, unsocially-distanced dinner at the lavish wine country restaurant are on endless feedback loops among Newsom critics.

In a statement, Cox also hit Newsom for “his complete failure with vaccine distribution and school and business closures.” Nobody needs to take a poll to know that those are intensely frustrating, hot-button issue with voters.

There’s also the money factor. Republicans would love to knock off Newsom, the liberal darling, and cash is arriving from in and out of state to the tune of over $3 million, according to Politico. There are also contributions from deep pocket venture capital money and Silicon Valley techies.

The result has been a surprisingly robust signature-gathering effort. Organizers claim they have 1.3 million signatures, which is short of the 1.5 million needed, but definitely within striking range. Expect efforts to ramp up in coming weeks because the deadline to certify the signatures is March 17.

And finally, this is having an effect. A Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll in January found that Newsom’s approval ratings were 46 approve and 48 percent disapprove. This for a governor who won the office by a 62-38 percent margin in 2018.

In a long-form dive into “whither Gavin” Politico spoke to Democratic consultant Andrew Acosta who warned that Newsom had better “start taking this shit seriously, and going to war.”

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So sure, you can see why this would be a captivating national story. A liberal San Francisco governor, considered a possible presidential candidate, hits choppy water and flounders amid concerns and mis-steps for vaccines, schools and opening businesses.

And frankly, Newsom hasn’t helped himself. Always tending to long-windedness, his COVID press briefings can turn into an eye-glazing recitation of numbers and stats, mixed in with a touch of defensiveness. Unfortunately, when you’ve got the worst vaccination rate in the USA, as California did three weeks ago, you’ve got something to be defensive about.

It all adds up to quite a package. And it wouldn’t be hard to find someone who would tell you that Newsom is in big trouble politically.

To which I’d say: not so fast.

Let’s begin with Topic A. No, not the French Laundry, the pandemic. The fact is, nobody’s happy. We’re scared, we’re concerned and we’ve had it.

Newsom’s Coronavirus efforts, granted, have been all over the shop. Yes, some of his wounds have been self inflicted (see French Laundry).

First he opened outdoor dining and then closed it and now has opened it again.

But this — open for eating outdoors statewide — is the right choice. It gives hope to drowning restaurant owners and comfort to everyday people who feel like they can — carefully, cautiously — begin to reclaim their lives.

Also, the virus numbers are declining. The clear COVID trend is down. Fewer deaths, fewer infections and less crowded intensive care units.

Right now we’re still grumpy and worried, but if the downward trend continues, and the vaccination rate goes up, we will all be a little happier and more confident. We can debate how much the governor did, but he’s definitely going to get some credit if the numbers turn around.

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Meanwhile, opening the schools is a real problem. In a bit of a coup, Newsom has managed to make everyone — parents, teachers and students — unhappy.

Frankly, that’s just how it is going to have to be. It was a bold move when Newsom closed the state’s public schools back in the spring. And it was the right move. But now they’ve been closed too long.

That’s why he, and local officials like Mayor London Breed, are advocating forcefully to safely open the schools. For the general public, that’s a winning message.

Now the pressure is on the teachers, who are pushing back. And despite the good will educators have built up, parents are getting increasingly riled up. Teachers can stand on principle only so long. In the face of science and evidence, they need to go back into the classroom — although with every possible precaution.

And if schools re-open, say for a period of two months at the end of the year, the relief will be overwhelming and popular. And surely, Newsom will get some of that credit.

And finally, it is worth repeating a point that many other much-smarter observers have made — who’s going to beat Newsom?

Cox, a Republican in a big, blue state, has been running for office for years, including some failed campaigns (one for president) in Illinois. He moved to California, ran against Newsom in 2018 and lost by the aforementioned 62-38 percent.

That’s your big dawg, Republicans?

And this is where we take a big leap into the great, speculative beyond with a theory that might seem counter-intuitive.

Is it possible that a recall election might help Newsom’s political future?

This isn’t completely crazy. We direct your attention to another a former San Francisco mayor, Dianne Feinstein.

In 1983, Mayor Feinstein made a couple of decisions that angered special interest groups. She signed a law banning handguns in the city. (that was unpopular?) And vetoed an ordinance that would have given employee benefits to domestic partners of city workers. That angered both the gay community and a gun rights group.

A “Dump Dianne” campaign managed to get enough signatures to put the recall on the ballot.

But when it came time to vote, San Francisco voters rallied around Feinstein. She ended up getting 80 percent.

That finished off the recall, but more importantly, it scared off any opponents who had been thinking of running against her.

As former Mayor Art Agnos said in an SF Weekly retrospective about the recall, “No one really wanted to run against her when they saw the kind of support . . . So she didn’t have major opposition in that race for re-election and many people attributed that to the huge defeat of the recall.”

We’re kind of doubting Newsom gets 80 percent support in a recall, but if he wins, especially if he wins by double digits, it kind of takes the air out of the 2022 race doesn’t it?

We’ve already run a practice election, what’s the point of spending millions to do it again? Unless you’ve got someone pretty sexy to run against Newsom, he will look pretty powerful. It can all work out for him.

And then all he has to do is explain away the French Laundry story.

Just kidding. He’s going to hear about that for years and years.

Contact C.W. Nevius at cwnevius@gmail.com. Suggestions and compliments welcome. Criticism not so much. Twitter: @cwnevius