San Francisco's upcoming homelessness armageddon

In which we discuss how bad things are. And why they might get worse

You saw the news, of course. Hastings Law School, Tenderloin merchants and some residents have sued the city of San Francisco over the intolerable conditions in their neighborhood.

This isn’t a cry for help. It is standing on the roof, waving two red flags and shouting:

“C’mon! This can not be the status quo! This is intolerable!”

A tent encampment on Fifth Street

And it is. A tent encampment has swamped the area around Hastings. A report by a nonprofit group called Urban Alchemy says from March 13 to May 2 of this year, tents and shelters in the Tenderloin grew from 173 to 391.

The Hastings complaint talks of finding “used needles . . . human feces and urine” daily. They say they have spent $70,000 on increased security, but car break-ins are common.

The camp has turned to a virtual land rush. I was down there a few weeks before the Coronavirus hit, and noticed there was a camper in the doorway of the Soluna Cafe, a favorite City Hall meetup spot. Too bad, I thought, it must have closed.

But no, I came back another day. It had just been closed for a bit. But just that quickly, someone moved in, set up a tent and took residence.

So, in short, it is a sad day when a nationally known law school — Kamala Harris is a graduate — has to beg the city for help. And it doesn’t take long for one of the merchants to point out that they don’t see tent towns like this in Mission Bay or the Marina.

So yeah, it’s a mess . . .

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Now, for some bad news.

And it comes in four parts.

First, the Tenderloin is ground zero, and gets the worst of the influx, but this is ongoing. From 2015 to 2019, the homeless count increased by 20 percent.

And, if this virus tanks the economy — which has to considered a good bet — it is going to only increase the number of homeless. There would be people who were on the brink of poverty and are pushed over the edge when jobs dry up.

Second, if this virus tanks the economy — see duh, above — a lot of those little shops and stores are not going to make it. That will create more vacant doorways and empty spaces downtown. More spaces for more tents. Hopefully not in a hollowed out downtown without retail.

Third, if this virus tanks the economy — ibid — it is going to lower the tax revenue for the city. This was unplanned, so it is possible it could have a serious effect on the city budget. Especially on services like homeless outreach.

Fourth, despite what homeless advocates have been insisting for years, San Francisco and its services, are a draw for down-on-their-luck outsiders. Fire Chief Jeanine Nicholson, whose paramedics interact with campers, said in the Chronicle that up to 75 percent of campers near the Asian Art Museum are not from San Francisco.

“They come right out and ask,” a paramedic said in the column. “How do I get a hotel room?”

And that’s the funny thing. Everybody talks about how complicated the homeless problem is. But it isn’t. It’s simple. All you have to do is answer one question:

“Are you (meaning the city) willing to put 8-10,000 people up in hotel rooms?”

That’s the ask from the Board of Supervisors, that demands the city lease over 8,000 hotel rooms to house virtually every homeless person, at least until Coronavirus is no longer a threat.

Mayor London Breed has not been enthusiastic about the mass warehousing, and I agree with her. This could last months. Or are we suggesting that this would be a permanent solution? Putting 8,000 homeless people in downtown hotels sounds like a recipe for problems.

This has always been at the core of the debate. Is San Francisco obligated to provide free housing for every person who comes to the city and declares themself homeless? Or do we adjust according to need and resources?

It has been the argument for years. And that’s where we are right now. The city has leased 2,700 hotel rooms for at-risk homeless individuals, but has balked at housing 8,000.

We’re stuck. Meanwhile, points one, two, three and four are headed our way.

So, I say we think outside the box.

Tents are the biggest change in homelessness in San Francisco. Progressive do-gooders have been buying tents and giving them to people living on the street for years. I’m sure they can make a good case as to why giving tents out is good for the city. I don’t see it.

But the effect has been dramatic. Instant, popup settlements. And with shelter from the elements, campers can stay in one place, colonizing the sidewalk.

Those campers like the tents. They offer a little privacy, shelter and are much more pleasant than sleeping on the sidewalk. My experience has been that if someone offers a tent dweller a cot in a shelter, they are likely to say they will stick with the tent.

So I say we give up on that. The battle of tents is over. We lost. They are everywhere. So, maybe instead of trying to get them out of tents, we move them with the tent.

Yep, I am going to propose something that I have long mocked and consistently doubted, a designated camping area. Tents could be kept six feet apart, it should be possible to get toilets and running water, and you wouldn’t have the pushback of throwing out someone’s belongings.

The city actually tried something like that back in 2016, opening a shelter on Pier 80 with toilets, showers and three meals a day. Frankly, it wasn’t a hit with the homeless because it was too far away. But it was large, clean and had sanitary services. Something like that, on one of the piers south of the Chase Arena, could work, at least for the duration of the pandemic.

Maybe it would work better with tents. And it would certainly provide an answer to the first question campers ask when asked to move: Where am I supposed to go?

Now, let me say that we’ve seen this tried elsewhere — Santa Cruz did it in 2019 — and as far as I’ve seen the track record is not good. (Santa Cruz’s didn’t last a year.) The problem is, if the city is going to set up a campground, it has to police it too. That means handling bad actors and providing medical care.

So there are some good reasons not to do it. But hey, I’m just a guy yelling down a wishing well, so I can propose stuff like this.

But I can tell you this. Hastings and the merchants didn’t file a lawsuit as a legal exercise. They are desperate over there. They need help.

So does San Francisco.

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Right now we need a sport where the players wear sunglasses and spit seeds

Every professional sport is trying to work out a safe way to return to playing games. The problem was, there was that initial burst of enthusiasm — Hey, we just ban fans and play the games on TV — it turned out there were a lot more moving parts than that.

But as I suggested in last week’s Santa Rosa Press Democrat column on Sunday, the best choice to re-start is baseball. Players are generally far away from each other — although there are going to be some social distancing violations — so it isn’t like football or basketball where players are constantly in contact.

Also, baseball isn’t “America’s pastime” for nothing. If there was ever a time for an easy-going, slow-paced sport that leaves plenty of time for conversation, this is it.

Predictably, there were money problems. The owners suddenly realized that without stadium income — tickets, parking concessions — they were going to be short about half their usual revenue.

They asked the players if they’d like to cut their salaries. And the players, predictably, said “Take a hike, Meat.”

But c’mon. Surely they will work this out.

They have to. An entertainment-starved country turns its lonely eyes to you.

Contact C.W. Nevius at cwnevius@gmail.com. Suggestions and compliments cheerfully accepted. Criticism not so much. Twitter: @cwnevius