Don't kid yourself, Newsom's recall was a big deal

The final numbers don't reflect the seriousness or the importance

Never mind.

It turns out the big freak-out about the recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom was nothing, right?

You saw the early alarms. July polls showed the recall of Newson was running at about 50-50. And if he failed, by a single vote, to reach 50 percent, the new governor would be chosen from among 46 oddball candidates.

Today, now that early returns show Newsom winning the recall by essentially a 2-1 margin, that all seems like an overreaction. People are now poking fun at the early alarm-sounding pollsters, one critic calling them “drunk clowns.”

But let’s get real. This was serious. And important. And Newsom, the Democratic Party and national media treated it as such.

When the July polls came out, Newsom basically went into full campaign mode. He raised $70 million to fight the recall, much of it in July and August. A who’s who of Democratic heavy hitters, from VP Kamala Harris to Sen. Elizabeth Warren to Sen. Bernie Sanders, made appearances and appeals for Newsom.

And they were followed by President Joe Biden himself, flying cross country to bang the drum.

Last night CNN went Full Monty election night coverage of the recall. There were panelists, analysts and even an appearance with John King and the Magic Wall, breaking down counties in real time.

And it wasn’t just newsy. There’s potential here that this election made a difference on several levels. For instance:

Sorry, I am going to keep telling this story until forced to stop with a court order. In 1983, then SF Mayor Dianne Feinstein faced a recall. She won it in a landslide. And in the next election cycle she basically ran unopposed. That lopsided recall win cleared the field.

There is no doubt this is wind at Newsom’s back. His favorable numbers have been over 50 percent throughout and now with a potential 60 percent vote on recall, he looks tough to beat.

(You’re going to say that Larry Elder got 47 percent. But remember, only about a third of voters voted yes. Elder’s votes came out of that. So he got about one half of one third of the vote.)

CNN covered Newsom’s victory speech live. He is a regular target on late night comedy shows. Other parts of the country have begun recognizing him when he pops up on TV.

If name/face recognition is part of the game, Newsom comes out ahead. Now, let’s see what he does in the spotlight.

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Second, this was a Republican nightmare. California used the COVID crisis to institute state-wide vote-by-mail in 2020. And now they’ve continued it. Ballots mailed to every voter? Able to vote with a flick of a pen and a flip in the mailbox? Horrors.

This is what the Republicans have been so desperately trying to avoid by making it harder to vote. If other states follow Cali’s lead, the Democrats might look like the majority in this country. Which they are.

Voter turnout was clearly key in the recall. Those early polls were based on “likely voters,” and frankly they were probably right. People, particularly complacent Democrats, weren’t that enthused.

Nationally, this references back to lack of Democratic and Independent voter interest in recent elections, like the 2016 Donald Trump win. Are blue-leaning voters getting the message?

And finally, the recall has the potential to be a template for Democratic candidates, certainly for those running in blue states.

Newsom not only ran harder at the end, he narrowed his message to two points. He was all about sensible steps to fighting COVID. And he put Trump on the ballot.

Newsom was helped by Elder, who was a practically perfect foil. Elder’s stance that he would end pandemic mask mandates, played nicely into both of Newsom’s talking points.

First, as the Chronicle’s Joe Garofoli says, The Public Policy Institute survey said 78 percent of likely voters thought Newsom was doing a “good” job on COVID. (That’s also true nationally, where a USA Today poll found 72 percent favored mask mandates.)

And second, with Elder playing the heavy, Newsom was able to lean into the idea that this was a Republican plot to “turn us into Florida.” And that Elder was even worse than Trump.

Demos have been wary of using Trump as a campaign issue, but it worked here. And as the Washington Post’s Perry Bacon Jr. says, “Newsom’s victory suggests running as the anti-Trump party still has political value.”

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Finally, on Sunday the New York Times ran a snooty editorial about California’s “broken” recall system. It made all the usual (and sensible) points.

It only takes enough signatures to represent 12 percent of total votes to trigger a recall election. And then, if the recall subject doesn’t get 50 percent, the new office-holder is picked from a group that might not even get 20 percent of the vote.

All true. And it is true that there have been hundreds of recall attempts since the law was enacted in 1911 and every governor since 1960 has been a recall target — often more than once.

But here’s the point. For all those numbers, there have only been two gubernatorial recall elections in the history of the state. It doesn’t happen that often.

Which, in a way, is kind of too bad. As this recall proved, sometimes it is a good idea to take the pulse of the public in a time of crisis.

This one turned out to be useful.

Contact C.W. Nevius at cwnevius@gmail.com. Suggestions and compliments welcome, criticism not so much. Twitter: @cwnevius